MTRN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MTRN −2.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MTRN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
266.34 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
280.00 +9.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 250.00 · prior close 255.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
245.64 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
233.65 -8.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 242.43 | 2 in 10 days | 269.86 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 245.64 | 3 in 10 days | 266.34 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 248.66 | 4 in 10 days | 263.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 226.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 288.35 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 233.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 280.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 240.14 | 4 in 10 weeks | 272.44 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MTRN's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -6.9% | -12.0% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -6.7% | +6.0% | +13.2% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.4% | +2.7% | +13.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.3% | -11.9% | -5.1% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -6.3% | +1.5% | -12.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.1% | -12.5% | -4.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.2% | -1.9% | +13.8% | +13.7% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.7% | -9.5% | -25.6% | -4.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among MTRN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
319.18 +27.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 280.00 +12.0% |
| 50-day average | 261.39 +4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
255.78 +2.3% |
| Now | 250.00 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 233.65 -6.5% |
| 200-day average | 206.19 -17.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
111.13 -55.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.