MTSI
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MTSI −6.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −6.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MTSI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
304.31 +4.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
321.15 +10.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 272.91 · prior close 291.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
278.91 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
264.28 -9.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 274.99 | 2 in 10 days | 308.65 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 278.91 | 3 in 10 days | 304.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 282.61 | 4 in 10 days | 300.32 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 256.04 | 2 in 10 weeks | 331.48 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 264.28 | 3 in 10 weeks | 321.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 272.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 311.81 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MTSI's daily swings (about 4.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.2% | -13.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.8% | -3.4% | +21.2% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.3% | +1.4% | +7.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -10.6% | -9.1% | -10.2% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.6% | +17.9% | -1.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.6% | -5.8% | -3.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -6.0% | +2.7% | +14.9% | +5.7% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.0% | -1.0% | -13.6% | +7.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among MTSI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
409.68 +50.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 321.15 +17.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
291.33 +6.7% |
| 50-day average | 286.38 +4.9% |
| 200-day average | 279.68 +2.5% |
| Now | 272.91 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 264.28 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
131.54 -51.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.