MUSA
Moving with the market
- MUSA +0.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MUSA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
548.26 +1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
560.30 +4.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 541.42 · prior close 538.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
529.31 -1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
517.93 -3.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 526.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 551.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 529.31 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 548.26 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 532.14 | 4 in 10 days | 545.34 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 511.36 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 567.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 517.93 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 560.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 524.13 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 553.67 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MUSA's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | +2.6% | -1.5% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +4.1% | -3.5% | -4.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +6.3% | +6.0% | -6.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | +2.4% | -5.7% | -17.3% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +3.5% | +2.0% | -10.9% | -13.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +3.7% | +4.6% | +8.8% | -9.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +3.0% | +12.9% | +3.9% | -3.9% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +14.3% | -1.2% | -12.2% | +3.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among MUSA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 20, 2026 |
622.07 +14.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 560.30 +3.5% |
| Now | 541.42 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
538.70 -0.5% |
| 50-day average | 529.60 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 517.93 -4.3% |
| 200-day average | 509.51 -5.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
354.79 -34.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.