MVST
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MVST +5.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +5.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MVST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
0.55 +4.0% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
0.57 +9.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 0.56 · prior close 0.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
0.51 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
0.48 -8.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 0.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 0.55 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 0.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 0.55 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 0.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 0.54 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 0.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 0.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 0.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 0.57 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 0.50 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 0.56 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MVST's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | -0.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.9% | -9.4% | -4.3% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.2% | +12.4% | -0.3% | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -4.7% | -0.4% | -28.6% | -39.0% |
| May 18, 2026 | -12.0% | +15.2% | +0.8% | -39.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -13.9% | +383.2% | +620.5% | +1011.8% |
| Aug 13, 2024 | -6.2% | -5.3% | -40.8% | -38.9% |
| May 23, 2024 | -4.1% | -1.3% | +24.8% | -15.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MVST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 1, 2021 |
24.50 +4297.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 16, 2025 |
6.40 +1048.6% |
| 200-day average | 1.53 +174.8% |
| 50-day average | 0.70 +24.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 0.57 +3.1% |
| Now | 0.56 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
0.53 -5.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
0.53 -5.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 0.48 -13.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.