MWA
Moving with the market
- MWA −0.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MWA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
21.95 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
22.30 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 21.61 · prior close 21.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
21.41 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
21.08 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 21.32 | 2 in 10 days | 22.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 21.41 | 3 in 10 days | 21.95 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 21.49 | 4 in 10 days | 21.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 22.50 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.08 | 3 in 10 weeks | 22.30 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 21.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 22.11 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MWA's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MWA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 13, 2026 |
30.21 +39.8% |
| 200-day average | 25.91 +19.9% |
| 50-day average | 23.43 +8.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 22.30 +3.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
21.68 +0.3% |
| Now | 21.61 |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
21.24 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.08 -2.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.