MXL
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MXL −7.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −7.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close (date not confirmed): EPS $0.32 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MXL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.37 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
91.77 +16.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 72.90 · prior close 78.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
73.64 -6.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
67.70 -14.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 86.26 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 73.64 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 84.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 75.17 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 82.65 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 64.43 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 96.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 67.70 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 91.77 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 70.89 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 87.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MXL's daily swings (about 7.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -12.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -13.1% | +32.7% | +36.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -14.3% | -8.6% | +3.2% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -7.2% | +10.2% | -11.9% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -21.5% | -6.7% | -12.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -16.3% | +22.6% | +14.0% | +5.9% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -12.2% | -14.8% | -40.5% | -19.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.6% | +43.7% | +2.4% | -1.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MXL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
128.03 +75.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 91.77 +25.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
78.82 +8.1% |
| 50-day average | 77.60 +6.4% |
| Now | 72.90 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 67.70 -7.1% |
| 200-day average | 57.03 -21.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
13.05 -82.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.