NAMM

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NAMM −3.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 4 big gains in the past 5 years, NAMM typically lost 3.3% over the next day (median) and was higher only 25% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -4.7% and -2.0%. An ordinary day: -1.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #294 of 500. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
• 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 86% positive over the week.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.