NB
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NB −2.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.24 +3.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
3.38 +7.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 3.08 · prior close 3.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.04 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
2.92 -7.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.01 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.04 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.24 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.07 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.21 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.85 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.92 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.38 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 2.98 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NB's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -2.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.7% | -4.2% | -11.5% | — |
| Nov 1, 2024 | -12.6% | -7.5% | -3.1% | +64.2% |
| Jun 10, 2024 | -1.5% | -1.0% | +6.1% | -8.9% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | -4.2% | +14.0% | -1.3% | -21.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
11.67 +279.5% |
| 200-day average | 5.06 +64.6% |
| 50-day average | 4.02 +30.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.38 +9.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.14 +2.1% |
| Now | 3.08 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
3.08 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.92 -5.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 4 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.