NBIS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NBIS +4.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: William Blair started coverage at Outperform.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 489 | +0.1%#250 H | +2.3%#132 H | +13.1%#83 H | +38.1%#105 L |
| Big drop (-6.8% or worse) | 16 | -1.3%#266 M | +1.2%#234 M | +11.2%#151 M | +28.5%#220 L |
| Big gain (+8.5% or better) | 19 | +0.6%#234 M | +5.0%#206 M | +8.3%#195 M | +24.7%#210 L |
| Earnings beat | 5 | -0.6%#251 L | -7.5%#279 L | -1.9%#253 L | +47.7%#162 L |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.8%– | -1.1%– | +18.5%– | +67.1%– |
| 52-week high | 3 | +6.3%#1 L | -2.1%#246 L | +12.1%#215 L | +23.0%– |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 1 | +7.9%– | +13.8%– | +12.0%– | +105.6%– |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 1 | +16.6%– | +21.5%– | +28.5%– | +150.1%– |
| RSI oversold | 1 | -2.7%– | +21.6%– | +84.6%– | +147.8%– |
| RSI overbought | 11 | -2.3%#308 M | +3.0%#195 M | +1.7%#236 M | -2.7%#243 L |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 33 | +0.6%#31 H | +1.9%#31 H | +4.7%#26 M | +8.5%#33 L |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -0.9%– | -9.7%– | +3.2%– | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 10 | +3.4%#14 L | +1.8%#16 L | +12.2%#17 L | +60.0%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NBIS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-6.8% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 16 | -1.35% (-5.9 to -0.4) | Medium | #266 of 500 | 31% | -2.12% |
-10%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 16 | +1.24% (-5.7 to +2.0) | Medium | #234 of 500 | 56% | +1.08% |
-11%
+34%
|
|
| 1 month | 16 ≈10 indep. | +11.24% (+7.7 to +16.6) | Medium | #151 of 500 | 69% | +8.18% |
-18%
+42%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈3 indep. | +28.48% (+2.9 to +124.6) | Low | #220 of 499 | 75% | +27.06% |
-32%
+128%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NBIS's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 16 | -1.3%M vs -0.1% | +1.2%M vs +1.9% | +11.2%M vs +10.9% | +28.5%L vs +22.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 9 | -4.3%M vs +0.1% | -1.4%M vs +2.2% | +8.4%M vs +15.3% | +41.0%L vs +27.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 7 | -1.0%L vs +1.1% | +2.0%L vs +2.0% | +12.3%L vs +8.2% | +26.9%– vs +76.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 6 | -0.7%L vs 0.0% | -1.3%L vs +0.4% | +12.5%L vs +16.5% | +57.7%L vs +30.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 10 | -3.2%M vs +1.0% | +1.7%M vs +6.3% | +11.2%L vs +8.3% | +21.2%L vs +46.1% |
The same event split by where NBIS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $248.43 | -7.6% on the day (line -7.0%) | -9.9% | -10.7% | -12.3% | … |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 6 @ $189.88 | -13.3% on the day (line -7.0%) | -1.0% | +34.3% | +19.2% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $187.77 | -15.0% on the day (line -6.8%) | +0.1% | +1.4% | +12.3% | … |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Jul 14 @ $194.09 | -7.8% on the day (line -6.8%) | +2.8% | +11.8% | +33.5% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $229.18 | -17.0% on the day (line -6.7%) | -5.9% | -5.7% | -16.9% | +2.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $227.81 | -12.3% on the day (line -6.7%) | -4.3% | +2.0% | -5.0% | -0.6% |
| May 18, 2026 | May 18 @ $199.86 | -9.1% on the day (line -6.7%) | -1.1% | +4.1% | +40.6% | +24.3% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $105.97 | -7.9% on the day (line -6.8%) | -4.9% | +2.7% | +36.8% | +126.8% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Mar 17 @ $116.33 | -10.4% on the day (line -6.8%) | +1.9% | -1.2% | +42.1% | +127.9% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Feb 20 @ $97.92 | -9.0% on the day (line -6.8%) | +2.7% | -6.9% | +16.6% | +124.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Jan 30 @ $85.19 | -10.2% on the day (line -6.7%) | +3.5% | +1.1% | +1.9% | +81.3% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $99.29 | -8.7% on the day (line -6.7%) | -0.4% | -1.4% | +8.4% | +57.7% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Dec 12 @ $87.69 | -7.0% on the day (line -6.6%) | -7.5% | +2.0% | +16.3% | +32.7% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Nov 20 @ $84.64 | -11.0% on the day (line -6.7%) | -1.6% | +12.1% | +10.1% | +21.2% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Nov 11 @ $102.22 | -7.0% on the day (line -6.4%) | -7.7% | -11.4% | -7.8% | -12.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.