NCNO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NCNO +4.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NCNO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
20.20 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
20.87 +6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 20.53 · prior close 19.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
19.16 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
18.54 -5.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 18.99 | 2 in 10 days | 20.37 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 19.16 | 3 in 10 days | 20.20 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 19.31 | 4 in 10 days | 20.04 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 18.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 21.27 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 18.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.87 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 18.88 | 4 in 10 weeks | 20.50 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NCNO's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NCNO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 1, 2020 |
98.04 +377.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
27.10 +32.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.87 +1.6% |
| Now | 20.53 |
| 50-day average | 20.51 -0.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.67 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 18.54 -9.7% |
| 200-day average | 18.43 -10.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
14.01 -31.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.