NDAQ
Moving with its group (XLF +1.3%)
- NDAQ +1.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $1.02 expected (15 analysts); it moved ±1.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $120 → $118.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NDAQ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
93.12 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
94.57 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 93.27 · prior close 91.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
90.82 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
89.43 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 90.45 | 2 in 10 days | 93.50 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 90.82 | 3 in 10 days | 93.12 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 91.16 | 4 in 10 days | 92.76 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 88.62 | 2 in 10 weeks | 95.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 89.43 | 3 in 10 weeks | 94.57 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 90.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 93.77 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NDAQ's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NDAQ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 132.00 +41.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 108.69 +16.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
99.96 +7.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 94.57 +1.4% |
| 50-day average | 94.48 +1.3% |
| Now | 93.27 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
91.96 -1.4% |
| 200-day average | 89.97 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 89.43 -4.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 84.00 -9.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 29, 2026 |
76.59 -17.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.