NEM
Moving with its group (GDX +3.0%)
- NEM +2.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 after the close: EPS $1.95 expected (8 analysts); it moved ±6.4% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The gold miners ETF (GDX) +3.0% (+2.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($114.23 today so far, above its 200-day average of $111.64): After its 9 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, NEM was higher a day later 6 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NEM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
113.98 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
117.04 +4.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 114.23 · prior close 111.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
109.19 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
106.34 -4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 108.44 | 2 in 10 days | 114.77 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 109.19 | 3 in 10 days | 113.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 109.90 | 4 in 10 days | 113.24 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 118.88 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 106.34 | 3 in 10 weeks | 117.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 107.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 115.35 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NEM's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -4.4% | -0.2% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.3% | +0.3% | -8.3% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -3.1% | +11.8% | +8.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.6% | +4.3% | +29.6% | +23.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.2% | -0.3% | +9.7% | +22.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -3.9% | -4.5% | -3.2% | +30.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -8.0% | +0.5% | -6.5% | +28.7% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.7% | +0.2% | -10.4% | +22.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among NEM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +48.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 137.48 +20.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
134.86 +18.1% |
| 50-day average | 121.36 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 117.04 +2.5% |
| Now | 114.23 |
| 200-day average | 111.72 -2.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
111.56 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 106.34 -6.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 27, 2025 |
77.90 -31.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 67.00 -41.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.