NFG
Moving with the market
- NFG −0.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NFG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
80.17 +1.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
81.38 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 78.93 · prior close 79.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
78.24 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
77.07 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 77.93 | 2 in 10 days | 80.49 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 78.24 | 3 in 10 days | 80.17 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 78.53 | 4 in 10 days | 79.87 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 82.11 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 77.07 | 3 in 10 weeks | 81.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 77.71 | 4 in 10 weeks | 80.72 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NFG's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -1.7% | -2.8% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -1.6% | -2.5% | -4.5% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -1.7% | +0.6% | -3.0% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -1.4% | +0.8% | +2.0% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -2.1% | +2.5% | +1.7% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -1.4% | +3.4% | +4.3% | -1.6% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +4.2% | +10.6% |
| May 20, 2026 | -2.8% | -5.0% | -7.4% | +2.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among NFG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 7, 2026 |
94.62 +19.9% |
| 200-day average | 82.27 +4.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 81.38 +3.1% |
| 50-day average | 80.31 +1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
79.20 +0.3% |
| Now | 78.93 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 77.07 -2.4% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 18, 2026 |
74.81 -5.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.