NHC
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NHC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
211.69 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
218.76 +6.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 202.18 · prior close 206.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
200.73 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
194.25 -5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 199.01 | 2 in 10 days | 213.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 200.73 | 3 in 10 days | 211.69 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 202.36 | 4 in 10 days | 209.99 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 190.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 223.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 194.25 | 3 in 10 weeks | 218.76 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 197.77 | 4 in 10 weeks | 214.86 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NHC's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | -5.0% | -10.1% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.1% | +6.0% | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -2.8% | +2.1% | +1.7% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -6.5% | +4.1% | +4.4% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -3.6% | +2.8% | +6.5% | +10.8% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | -2.3% | +4.2% | +14.5% | +18.1% |
| May 26, 2026 | -3.1% | -3.5% | +6.1% | +18.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | -2.2% | +1.2% | -0.9% | +18.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among NHC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2026 |
247.94 +22.6% |
| 50-day average | 224.99 +11.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 218.76 +8.2% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
206.14 +2.0% |
| Now | 202.18 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 194.25 -3.9% |
| 200-day average | 193.44 -4.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 31, 2025 |
117.68 -41.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.