NLST
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NLST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.70 +6.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
7.20 +14.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 6.26 · prior close 6.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.96 -5.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
5.54 -12.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.85 | 2 in 10 days | 6.83 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.96 | 3 in 10 days | 6.70 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 6.07 | 4 in 10 days | 6.58 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 7.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 7.20 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 5.77 | 4 in 10 weeks | 6.92 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NLST's daily swings (about 6.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -5.4% | +18.8% | — | — |
| Oct 8, 2026 | -7.6% | -7.9% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -22.3% | -10.1% | +9.5% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -13.2% | +14.1% | -4.3% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -5.7% | +29.8% | +31.4% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -7.6% | -3.5% | +91.8% | +136.6% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.5% | -0.4% | -17.5% | +101.8% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -5.7% | +7.6% | +2.4% | +92.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among NLST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 16, 2007 |
12.40 +98.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 7.20 +15.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2026 |
6.99 +11.7% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
6.32 +1.0% |
| Now | 6.26 |
| 50-day average | 5.74 -8.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.54 -11.4% |
| 200-day average | 3.18 -49.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
0.54 -91.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.