NOC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NOC +0.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $7.18 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±4.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 55 big gains in the past 5 years, NOC was higher a day later 30 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $590 → $540.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NOC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
503.62 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
513.59 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 499.98 · prior close 495.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
487.89 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
478.41 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 485.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 506.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 487.89 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 503.62 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 490.24 | 4 in 10 days | 501.20 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 472.93 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 519.54 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 478.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 513.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 483.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 508.10 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NOC's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.3% | — | — | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | +1.9% | -5.9% | -8.9% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +1.8% | +1.2% | -8.9% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +2.5% | +1.9% | +7.3% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +2.7% | +7.0% | +5.0% | -0.5% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +3.6% | +1.3% | +0.7% | -2.7% |
| May 12, 2026 | +1.8% | -0.4% | -0.6% | +3.9% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | +2.2% | -0.9% | -18.5% | -20.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among NOC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 815.00 +63.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
761.19 +52.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 623.00 +24.6% |
| 200-day average | 590.14 +18.0% |
| 50-day average | 526.27 +5.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 513.59 +2.7% |
| Now | 499.98 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
495.69 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 478.41 -4.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
473.46 -5.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 419.00 -16.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.