NOVT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NOVT −2.71% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NOVT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
144.01 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
149.03 +6.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 136.27 · prior close 140.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
136.24 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
131.65 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 135.02 | 2 in 10 days | 145.31 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 136.24 | 3 in 10 days | 144.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 137.39 | 4 in 10 days | 142.80 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 129.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 152.06 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 131.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 149.03 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 134.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 146.26 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NOVT's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.5% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.4% | -4.1% | +3.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.9% | -11.1% | -15.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.0% | +9.1% | -3.8% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.9% | +9.4% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -10.3% | -0.8% | +3.6% | +1.9% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -2.8% | +7.2% | -5.3% | -4.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.3% | +2.7% | -4.9% | -5.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among NOVT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 16, 2024 |
186.20 +36.6% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 17, 2026 |
168.75 +23.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 149.03 +9.4% |
| 50-day average | 146.85 +7.8% |
| 200-day average | 141.35 +3.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
140.07 +2.8% |
| Now | 136.27 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 131.65 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
99.22 -27.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.