NPO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NPO −5.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NPO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
300.98 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
309.83 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 277.98 · prior close 294.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
287.20 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
279.00 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 285.02 | 2 in 10 days | 303.28 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 287.20 | 3 in 10 days | 300.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 289.24 | 4 in 10 days | 298.85 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 274.29 | 2 in 10 weeks | 315.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 279.00 | 3 in 10 weeks | 309.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 283.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 304.95 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NPO's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.3% | -7.5% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.5% | +4.3% | +7.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.6% | +3.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.9% | -7.9% | -12.8% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.7% | +6.8% | -1.6% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.3% | -8.5% | -13.0% | -15.0% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.2% | +2.6% | -8.3% | -18.0% |
| May 15, 2026 | -3.6% | -1.1% | +15.0% | +11.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among NPO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
387.22 +39.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 309.83 +11.5% |
| 50-day average | 309.52 +11.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
294.01 +5.8% |
| 200-day average | 292.77 +5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 279.00 +0.4% |
| Now | 277.98 |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
201.58 -27.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.