NRIX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NRIX +4.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported results Oct 12: EPS −$1.03 vs −$0.56 expected (miss, −$0.47, −83.9%).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NRIX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
24.25 +2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
25.00 +5.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 24.75 · prior close 23.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.10 -2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
22.41 -5.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 24.45 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 23.10 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 24.25 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 23.27 | 4 in 10 days | 24.08 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 22.02 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 25.44 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 22.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 25.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 22.79 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 24.59 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NRIX's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | +6.3% | +5.1% | +4.6% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +6.3% | +27.9% | +26.5% | +36.2% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | +6.8% | +9.0% | +57.9% | +67.1% |
| May 20, 2026 | +7.7% | +7.6% | +13.6% | +64.7% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | +6.9% | +0.3% | +8.0% | +45.5% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +5.6% | -7.4% | -5.6% | -2.0% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | +6.1% | +3.0% | -8.9% | -12.2% |
| Dec 4, 2025 | +7.1% | +5.8% | -3.3% | -14.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among NRIX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 19, 2021 |
50.17 +102.7% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 19, 2026 |
27.79 +12.3% |
| 50-day average | 25.11 +1.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.00 +1.0% |
| Now | 24.75 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
23.67 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.41 -9.4% |
| 200-day average | 19.77 -20.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
9.18 -62.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.