NSC

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NSC +2.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, NSC typically gained 0.4% over the next week (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +2.8%. An ordinary week: +0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #263 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.