NSSC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NSSC +1.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NSSC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.62 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
36.38 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 35.38 · prior close 35.02 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.43 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
33.71 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.24 | 2 in 10 days | 35.82 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 34.43 | 3 in 10 days | 35.62 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 34.60 | 4 in 10 days | 35.44 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.29 | 2 in 10 weeks | 36.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.71 | 3 in 10 weeks | 36.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 34.10 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.97 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NSSC's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.0% | -0.5% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.2% | +1.7% | -1.6% | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -3.1% | -3.3% | -1.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -3.3% | -4.9% | -10.2% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -5.2% | +1.6% | +14.6% | -2.0% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.8% | +3.8% | 0.0% | +0.2% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -6.0% | -0.7% | +7.8% | +3.2% |
| May 12, 2026 | -4.8% | -6.5% | -4.9% | +1.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among NSSC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 19, 2024 |
55.97 +58.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 25, 2026 |
46.65 +31.9% |
| 200-day average | 39.02 +10.3% |
| 50-day average | 36.57 +3.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.38 +2.9% |
| Now | 35.38 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.02 -1.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 5, 2026 |
34.65 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.71 -4.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.