NTAP
Moving with its memory & storage peers
- NTAP −3.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Memory & storage basket -3.6% (-3.6 pts vs SPY; STX -5.6%, WDC -5.1%, SNDK -3.8%, SKHY -2.5%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: SK Hynix (Seoul) -11.1%, Samsung (Seoul) -9.5%.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.6% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.2%): After its 54 big drops in the past 5 years, NTAP was higher a month later 34 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +5.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group upgraded to Outperform, raised target $210 → $300.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NTAP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
228.73 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
237.07 +6.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 214.25 · prior close 222.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
215.85 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
208.26 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 213.83 | 2 in 10 days | 230.89 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 215.85 | 3 in 10 days | 228.73 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 217.76 | 4 in 10 days | 226.73 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 203.92 | 2 in 10 weeks | 242.11 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 208.26 | 3 in 10 weeks | 237.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 212.39 | 4 in 10 weeks | 232.47 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NTAP's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.6% | +8.4% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -2.3% | +3.7% | +25.1% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -5.0% | -0.3% | +1.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -2.9% | -1.7% | +21.1% | +45.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -2.6% | -3.6% | +2.3% | +14.6% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -2.3% | -6.1% | -12.2% | +4.6% |
| May 6, 2026 | -2.1% | +6.1% | +49.5% | +71.9% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.2% | +28.6% | +55.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among NTAP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 300.00 +40.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 12, 2026 |
239.18 +11.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 237.07 +10.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
222.20 +3.7% |
| Now | 214.25 |
| Mean analyst target | 211.69 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 208.26 -2.8% |
| 50-day average | 201.39 -6.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 170.00 -20.7% |
| 200-day average | 143.41 -33.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 20, 2026 |
93.14 -56.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.