NTCT
Moving with the market
- NTCT −0.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NTCT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
39.34 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
40.23 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 38.46 · prior close 38.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
37.93 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
37.09 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 37.71 | 2 in 10 days | 39.57 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 37.93 | 3 in 10 days | 39.34 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 38.14 | 4 in 10 days | 39.12 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 40.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.09 | 3 in 10 weeks | 40.23 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 37.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 39.74 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NTCT's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -2.7% | +3.2% | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -2.8% | -3.7% | -8.6% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -3.0% | +1.5% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -3.0% | -3.0% | -5.2% | -4.2% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.7% | +6.7% | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.3% | +3.4% | +5.9% | +0.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.8% | +2.0% | +5.9% | -8.3% |
| May 27, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.8% | +1.1% | -6.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among NTCT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 11, 2014 |
47.33 +23.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 9, 2026 |
44.84 +16.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 40.23 +4.6% |
| 50-day average | 38.93 +1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.63 +0.4% |
| Now | 38.46 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.09 -3.6% |
| 200-day average | 35.71 -7.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
25.47 -33.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.