NTNX
Moving with the market
- NTNX −0.62% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NTNX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.08 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
72.64 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 69.42 · prior close 69.85 | |
| Bargain buy side |
68.64 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
67.17 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 68.25 | 2 in 10 days | 71.49 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 68.64 | 3 in 10 days | 71.08 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 69.00 | 4 in 10 days | 70.71 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.32 | 2 in 10 weeks | 73.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 67.17 | 3 in 10 weeks | 72.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 67.97 | 4 in 10 weeks | 71.78 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NTNX's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.4% | +7.2% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.0% | +18.6% | +50.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.4% | -6.4% | -1.2% | +26.0% |
| May 20, 2026 | -6.7% | +8.4% | +3.5% | +47.3% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.6% | +4.4% | +20.4% | +40.6% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | -3.8% | -5.6% | +9.9% | +36.0% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -3.8% | -4.7% | +4.0% | +18.1% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | -3.6% | -3.9% | +1.4% | +12.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among NTNX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 19, 2025 |
83.07 +19.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
74.63 +7.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 72.64 +4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.85 +0.6% |
| Now | 69.42 |
| 50-day average | 68.40 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 67.17 -3.2% |
| 200-day average | 51.46 -25.9% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
34.41 -50.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.