NTRS
Moving with the market
- NTRS +0.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $2.85 expected (10 analysts); it moved ±4.2% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.9% (+0.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($163.83 today so far, above its 200-day average of $162.72): After its 4 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, NTRS was higher a day later 2 times out of 4; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: BMO Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $208 → $190.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NTRS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
164.76 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
167.42 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 163.83 · prior close 162.64 | |
| Bargain buy side |
160.55 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
158.00 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 159.87 | 2 in 10 days | 165.45 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 160.55 | 3 in 10 days | 164.76 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 161.18 | 4 in 10 days | 164.12 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 156.52 | 2 in 10 weeks | 169.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 158.00 | 3 in 10 weeks | 167.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 159.39 | 4 in 10 weeks | 165.96 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NTRS's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.7% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.0% | -1.5% | -7.8% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -2.7% | +1.2% | -3.6% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.0% | -2.3% | +3.7% | — |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -2.6% | +5.3% | +10.8% | +13.2% |
| May 4, 2026 | -2.0% | -0.1% | +4.5% | +13.7% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -2.3% | -1.8% | -0.4% | +6.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among NTRS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 194.00 +18.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 17, 2026 |
190.57 +16.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 181.71 +10.9% |
| 50-day average | 179.49 +9.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 167.42 +2.2% |
| Now | 163.83 |
| 200-day average | 162.86 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
162.64 -0.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 158.00 -3.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 158.00 -3.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
120.18 -26.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.