NUE

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• NUE +1.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Sep 29): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, NUE typically lost 0.2% over the next day (median) and was higher only 41% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +1.1%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #470 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.