NVCR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- NVCR +1.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NVCR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.25 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
14.77 +6.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 14.08 · prior close 13.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.44 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
12.97 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.32 | 2 in 10 days | 14.38 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 13.44 | 3 in 10 days | 14.25 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 13.56 | 4 in 10 days | 14.12 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 12.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 15.08 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 12.97 | 3 in 10 weeks | 14.77 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 13.23 | 4 in 10 weeks | 14.48 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NVCR's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NVCR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 23, 2021 |
225.58 +1502.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 23, 2026 |
19.99 +42.0% |
| 50-day average | 16.39 +16.4% |
| 200-day average | 14.78 +5.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 14.77 +4.9% |
| Now | 14.08 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
13.84 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.97 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 9, 2026 |
10.03 -28.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.