NVDA
Moving with the market
- NVDA +1.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- 7 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight, target $350.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.3%#14 H | +1.2%#9 H | +3.4%#19 H | +10.3%#40 M |
| Big drop (-3.1% or worse) | 51 | -0.1%#287 H | +0.1%#286 H | +7.0%#52 H | +14.8%#101 M |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 53 | +0.4%#117 H | +0.2%#258 H | +3.0%#162 H | +14.7%#92 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -1.8%#436 M | -1.1%#435 M | +0.7%#266 M | +15.1%#27 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -1.7%– | +3.8%– | +3.7%– | +31.8%– |
| 52-week high | 17 | +0.5%#94 M | -0.7%#392 M | +2.8%#153 M | +10.9%#140 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -3.4%– | -7.0%– | +18.4%– | +29.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | +3.0%#106 L | +6.3%#195 L | +11.6%#136 L | +38.2%#85 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | +2.6%#144 L | -3.0%#302 L | +10.9%#100 L | +18.4%#133 L |
| RSI oversold | 5 | +1.5%#162 L | +3.3%#188 L | +0.1%#292 L | +23.0%#164 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | -0.2%#337 H | +0.8%#150 H | +8.8%#50 H | +22.8%#51 M |
| Reddit spike | 107 | +0.3%#29 H | +1.8%#2 H | +3.4%#5 H | +14.2%#1 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | +0.4%– | -0.2%– | +5.3%– | +2.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 11 | +0.4%#8 M | +1.3%#11 M | +3.7%#9 L | +6.9%#15 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is NVDA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 107 | +0.26% (0.0 to +0.9) | High | #29 of 92 | 55% | +0.16% |
-7%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 107 | +1.82% (+0.8 to +2.7) | High | #2 of 92 | 60% | +0.84% |
-16%
+16%
|
|
| 1 month | 105 ≈53 indep. | +3.38% (+0.5 to +4.3) | High | #5 of 91 | 62% | +0.79% |
-27%
+49%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 101 ≈17 indep. | +14.20% (+5.5 to +21.6) | Medium | #1 of 87 | 69% | +7.11% |
-35%
+95%
|
Range of outcomes: all of NVDA's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 84 | +0.3%H vs +0.3% | +1.7%H vs +1.2% | +3.4%H vs +4.0% | +13.9%M vs +13.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 16 | +0.4%M vs +0.3% | +2.5%M vs +2.1% | +9.1%M vs +4.2% | +39.2%L vs +34.6% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 74 | +0.3%H vs +0.2% | +2.0%H vs +0.8% | +3.8%H vs +3.6% | +14.6%M vs +12.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 33 | +0.2%H vs +0.5% | +1.3%H vs +1.7% | +0.7%H vs +2.8% | +12.8%M vs +9.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 70 | +0.4%H vs +0.2% | +2.3%H vs +0.8% | +4.0%H vs +3.3% | +14.8%M vs +12.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 37 | +0.2%H vs +0.5% | +1.3%H vs +1.6% | +0.7%H vs +3.0% | +11.7%M vs +8.2% |
The same event split by where NVDA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 23 @ $225.51 | 67 mentions vs 15.9/day the week before | -0.4% | +1.3% | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 11 @ $218.29 | 59 mentions vs 17.6/day the week before | -3.4% | +1.8% | … | … |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aug 24 @ $208.25 | 122 mentions vs 37.4/day the week before | +2.2% | +5.9% | +8.3% | … |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aug 5 @ $218.97 | 211 mentions vs 62.9/day the week before | -0.1% | +2.2% | +4.2% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $211.82 | 102 mentions vs 33.3/day the week before | -1.6% | -10.4% | +2.3% | … |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $196.71 | 111 mentions vs 23.3/day the week before | +3.7% | +7.6% | +11.3% | … |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $204.64 | 96 mentions vs 31.0/day the week before | +0.2% | +2.8% | +3.4% | +6.7% |
| May 19, 2026 | May 20 @ $222.96 | 214 mentions vs 62.0/day the week before | -1.8% | -4.1% | -6.5% | -2.8% |
| May 5, 2026 | May 6 @ $207.36 | 234 mentions vs 58.0/day the week before | +1.8% | +8.7% | -1.2% | +5.5% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $216.12 | 86 mentions vs 16.7/day the week before | -1.6% | -8.4% | -1.9% | -8.9% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $197.90 | 131 mentions vs 30.0/day the week before | +1.7% | +0.7% | +13.6% | +2.4% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Apr 8 @ $181.66 | 32 mentions vs 7.0/day the week before | +1.0% | +9.2% | +16.2% | +11.5% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Mar 17 @ $181.52 | 121 mentions vs 22.7/day the week before | -0.8% | -3.7% | +9.0% | +14.1% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Feb 26 @ $184.46 | 808 mentions vs 54.3/day the week before | -4.2% | -0.8% | -9.4% | +15.9% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $187.54 | 160 mentions vs 22.4/day the week before | 0.0% | +4.0% | -5.0% | +17.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.