NVDA
Down amid AI debt sustainability concerns
- NVDA −1.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: AI chips and networking peers fell 3.09%; sector concerns about AI infrastructure financing models cited.
- AI chips & networking basket -3.3% (-3.4 pts vs SPY; ANET -5.4%, AMD -3.9%, ALAB -3.3%, MRVL -3.3%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 49 big drops in the past 5 years, NVDA was higher a month later 33 times out of 49; half the outcomes fell between -5.5% and +11.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 150 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NVDA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
225.48 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
230.75 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 217.89 · prior close 221.30 | |
| Bargain buy side |
217.20 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
212.24 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 215.89 | 2 in 10 days | 226.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 217.20 | 3 in 10 days | 225.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 218.43 | 4 in 10 days | 224.20 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 209.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 233.90 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 212.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 230.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 214.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 227.84 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NVDA's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.4% | +7.8% | +8.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.6% | +5.9% | +4.6% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -5.0% | +5.2% | +8.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.1% | +6.9% | +12.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.1% | 0.0% | +4.4% | +14.5% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -3.6% | -6.6% | -8.8% | +4.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | -4.4% | -4.4% | -7.8% | 0.0% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | -4.6% | +6.0% | +12.4% | +0.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among NVDA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 515.00 +136.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 328.72 +50.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
239.24 +9.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 230.75 +5.9% |
| 50-day average | 223.07 +2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
221.30 +1.6% |
| Now | 217.89 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 212.24 -2.6% |
| 200-day average | 202.53 -7.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 180.00 -17.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
164.79 -24.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.