NVO
Weight-loss stocks rise on obesity pipeline optimism
- NVO +3.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Weight-loss drugs: VKTX clocked its best day in nearly 3 months on obesity pipeline optimism and buyout speculation, per Stocktwits. (Stocktwits)
- Weight-loss drugs basket +5.2% (+5.1 pts vs SPY; VKTX +5.7%, LLY +4.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NVO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
38.85 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
39.77 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 39.46 · prior close 38.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
37.41 -1.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
36.54 -4.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 37.18 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 39.09 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 37.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 38.85 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 37.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 38.63 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 40.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 36.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 39.77 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 37.01 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 39.26 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NVO's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NVO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 25, 2024 |
135.66 +243.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 26, 2026 |
60.94 +54.4% |
| 200-day average | 44.16 +11.9% |
| 50-day average | 42.77 +8.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 39.77 +0.8% |
| Now | 39.46 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.12 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 36.54 -7.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
34.33 -13.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.