O
Moving with the market
- O +1.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 1): After its 63 big drops in the past 5 years, O typically lost 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher only 38% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +0.6%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #496 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#323 H | +0.2%#345 H | +0.3%#367 H | +0.9%#355 M |
| Big drop Oct 1 (-1.3% or worse) | 63 | -0.3%#496 H | 0.0%#486 H | +1.6%#222 H | +3.4%#320 M |
| Big gain (+1.3% or better) | 55 | +0.3%#84 H | +0.8%#33 H | +1.1%#369 H | +2.0%#408 M |
| Earnings beat | 4 | +1.3%#3 L | +1.3%#185 L | -0.7%#288 L | +1.6%#268 L |
| Earnings miss | 15 | +0.2%#32 M | +0.3%#231 M | -0.9%#271 M | +1.5%#189 M |
| 52-week high | 5 | +0.7%#146 L | +0.9%#50 L | +0.6%#234 L | -6.0%#444 L |
| 52-week low | 3 | +1.2%#53 L | +0.2%#134 L | +10.9%#50 L | +13.2%#15 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | -1.2%#472 M | -1.0%#486 M | +0.4%#432 M | -1.4%#428 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 12 | -0.1%#353 M | -0.2%#422 M | -0.7%#412 M | +3.6%#266 M |
| RSI oversold | 12 | -0.2%#443 M | +0.5%#262 M | +3.7%#97 M | +8.1%#117 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | -0.2%#480 M | +0.1%#236 M | +0.4%#257 M | -4.0%#488 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is O's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | -1.18% (-1.3 to +0.5) | Medium | #472 of 497 | 36% | -1.23% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 11 | -1.05% (-1.6 to +0.1) | Medium | #486 of 497 | 36% | -1.13% |
-4%
+3%
|
|
| 1 month | 11 | +0.39% (-0.3 to +1.6) | Medium | #432 of 497 | 55% | -1.50% |
-14%
+8%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 11 ≈9 indep. | -1.41% (-6.5 to +3.1) | Medium | #428 of 494 | 45% | -6.42% |
-16%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of O's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 8 | -0.8%M vs -0.1% | -1.2%M vs +0.2% | +0.5%M vs -0.6% | -2.3%L vs -1.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 3 | -1.3%L vs +0.1% | +0.6%L vs +0.1% | -0.2%L vs +1.4% | +7.4%L vs +3.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 6 | 0.0%L vs 0.0% | -1.3%L vs +0.3% | +0.5%L vs 0.0% | -3.5%L vs -0.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 5 | -1.3%L vs 0.0% | -0.8%L vs 0.0% | -0.2%L vs +0.5% | +2.7%L vs +2.7% |
The same event split by where O stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | Dec 22 @ $54.22 | +0.6% on the day | -1.3% | +0.6% | +7.7% | +7.4% |
| May 9, 2025 | May 9 @ $52.49 | +0.8% on the day | -1.3% | -0.8% | +1.6% | +2.7% |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Mar 14 @ $52.01 | +1.5% on the day | +0.5% | -1.6% | -0.3% | +3.1% |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Jan 27 @ $50.88 | +3.0% on the day | -1.8% | -2.2% | +0.7% | +3.7% |
| May 31, 2024 | May 31 @ $46.46 | +2.5% on the day | +1.0% | +1.0% | -0.2% | +18.8% |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Mar 28 @ $47.15 | +1.1% on the day | -1.2% | -2.0% | +0.4% | -1.4% |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Jan 23 @ $48.10 | +0.7% on the day | -1.8% | -1.4% | -5.2% | -3.3% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Dec 13 @ $48.43 | +3.9% on the day | +2.1% | +0.1% | +3.5% | -6.5% |
| Jul 17, 2023 | Jul 17 @ $51.17 | +0.8% on the day | -0.5% | +3.4% | -5.9% | -16.3% |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Jan 11 @ $53.77 | +2.9% on the day | +0.8% | -1.0% | +1.7% | -5.7% |
| Sep 7, 2022 | Sep 7 @ $54.73 | +0.8% on the day | -2.8% | -4.2% | -13.9% | -7.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.