OCFC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OCFC +1.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OCFC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
15.94 +1.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
16.19 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 15.97 · prior close 15.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
15.56 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
15.33 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 15.50 | 2 in 10 days | 16.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 15.56 | 3 in 10 days | 15.94 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 15.62 | 4 in 10 days | 15.88 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 15.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 16.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 15.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 16.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 15.45 | 4 in 10 weeks | 16.05 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OCFC's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | -2.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.6% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -1.9% | -6.8% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.8% | -13.1% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -2.9% | +0.3% | +3.2% | -11.6% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.1% | +11.6% | +3.5% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -2.9% | -1.5% | +7.5% | +4.3% |
| May 11, 2026 | -2.6% | +0.7% | -0.1% | +5.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -0.8% | -0.4% | — | — |
| Oct 23, 2023 | -5.1% | -0.4% | +9.6% | +44.5% |
| May 11, 2023 | -2.1% | +11.7% | +26.0% | +44.1% |
| Apr 4, 2023 | -4.3% | -2.3% | -23.7% | -11.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among OCFC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 20, 2018 |
22.33 +39.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
20.04 +25.5% |
| 200-day average | 18.29 +14.5% |
| 50-day average | 18.07 +13.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 16.19 +1.4% |
| Now | 15.97 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
15.75 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
15.75 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 15.33 -4.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.