ODFL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ODFL +1.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, ODFL was higher a day later 32 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 3 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Buy, lowered target $263 → $230.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ODFL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
187.30 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
190.99 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 188.04 · prior close 184.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
181.48 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
177.98 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 180.56 | 2 in 10 days | 188.27 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 181.48 | 3 in 10 days | 187.30 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 182.35 | 4 in 10 days | 186.41 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 175.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 193.19 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 177.98 | 3 in 10 weeks | 190.99 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 179.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 188.96 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ODFL's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ODFL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +32.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 9, 2026 |
248.34 +32.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 222.38 +18.3% |
| 200-day average | 200.39 +6.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 190.99 +1.6% |
| 50-day average | 189.54 +0.8% |
| Now | 188.04 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
184.37 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 177.98 -5.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 156.00 -17.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
125.51 -33.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.