Moving with its group (XLE -1.6%)
- OKE −0.95% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The energy ETF (XLE) -1.6% (-1.7 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 12): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, OKE was higher a week later 39 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +4.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, lowered target $106 → $100.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OKE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
93.39 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
95.18 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 91.10 · prior close 91.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
90.57 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
88.86 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 90.12 | 2 in 10 days | 93.86 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 90.57 | 3 in 10 days | 93.39 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 90.99 | 4 in 10 days | 92.96 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 87.88 | 2 in 10 weeks | 96.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 88.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 95.18 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 89.79 | 4 in 10 weeks | 94.20 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OKE's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among OKE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 112.00 +22.9% |
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2024 |
107.12 +17.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 100.95 +10.8% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 8, 2026 |
97.51 +7.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 95.18 +4.5% |
| 50-day average | 92.40 +1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
91.97 +1.0% |
| Now | 91.10 |
| Lowest analyst target | 89.00 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 88.86 -2.4% |
| 200-day average | 86.28 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
61.95 -32.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.