OKLO
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- OKLO −0.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, insider unplanned sale (Sep 30): After its 21 unplanned insider sales in the past 5 years, OKLO typically lost 5.0% over the next week (median) and was higher only 19% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -9.2% and -2.9%. An ordinary week: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after unplanned insider sales, that ranks #33 of 34.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 80% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, lowered target $55.00 → $41.00.
- 6 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 4 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#487 H | +0.1%#426 H | +0.2%#430 H | +0.8%#361 M |
| Big drop (-7.7% or worse) | 74 | +0.2%#181 H | +0.1%#347 H | -0.1%#460 H | +3.7%#236 M |
| Big gain (+9.8% or better) | 78 | 0.0%#379 H | +0.4%#212 H | +0.2%#358 H | +2.2%#230 M |
| Earnings beat | 1 | +1.1%– | -0.5%– | +72.0%– | +99.0%– |
| Earnings miss | 7 | -3.5%#208 L | -7.5%#193 L | -10.6%#193 L | +69.3%#109 L |
| 52-week high | 14 | 0.0%#230 M | +0.2%#233 M | +0.1%#366 M | +1.1%#244 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | +2.6%#104 L | +5.2%#3 L | +6.4%#88 L | +115.3%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -0.4%#245 L | -0.2%#256 L | 0.0%#254 L | +1.0%#236 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | +0.2%#248 L | +3.4%#241 L | +5.8%#239 L | +1.4%#232 L |
| RSI oversold | 3 | +4.1%#182 L | +5.5%#40 L | +42.6%#185 L | +156.2%– |
| RSI overbought | 20 | 0.0%#255 H | +0.8%#130 H | +1.5%#141 M | +1.5%#226 M |
| Reddit spike | 28 | +0.4%#40 H | -6.5%#73 H | -7.2%#72 M | -20.6%#52 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | -3.4%– | -12.5%– | -14.6%– | -29.3%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | -9.2%– | -11.6%– | -4.9%– | -37.6%– |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale Sep 30 | 24 | -2.1%#26 M | -5.0%#33 M | -7.3%#27 M | -24.8%#26 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is OKLO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Insider unplanned sale
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 ≈15 indep. | -2.12% (-6.3 to +2.2) | Medium | #26 of 34 | 46% | -2.44% |
-10%
+16%
|
|
| 1 week | 21 ≈14 indep. | -5.00% (-9.2 to -2.9) | Medium | #33 of 34 | 19% | -6.84% |
-17%
+29%
|
|
| 1 month | 18 ≈9 indep. | -7.32% (-16.4 to +6.1) | Medium | #27 of 33 | 39% | -8.93% |
-27%
+87%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈4 indep. | -24.78% (-33.8 to -5.1) | Low | #26 of 28 | 20% | -29.93% |
-47%
+41%
|
Range of outcomes: all of OKLO's unplanned insider sales in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Insider unplanned sale by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 5 | +1.7%L vs 0.0% | -0.9%L vs +0.1% | -0.6%L vs +0.5% | -33.8%– vs +2.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 19 | -2.4%M vs 0.0% | -7.0%M vs -0.1% | -8.6%L vs -2.6% | -5.1%– vs +1.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +3.0%L vs 0.0% | -5.5%L vs +0.1% | -9.3%L vs +0.4% | -40.2%– vs +2.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 20 | -2.4%M vs 0.0% | -5.0%M vs 0.0% | -7.3%L vs 0.0% | -5.1%L vs +0.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 3 | +1.7%L vs 0.0% | -12.5%L vs +0.1% | -0.6%– vs +0.3% | -40.7%– vs +1.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 21 | -2.4%M vs 0.0% | -5.0%M vs 0.0% | -7.5%L vs 0.0% | -14.9%L vs +0.4% |
The same event split by where OKLO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest unplanned insider sales
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sep 30 @ $37.02 | John Hanson (Chief of Staff), $41,129 | -2.4% | … | … | … |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $35.62 | John M Jansen (Director), $233,001 | +11.3% | +9.0% | … | … |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 3 @ $39.84 | Caroline Cochran (Co-Founder, COO, Director, 10% owner), $4,631,254 | +3.6% | -9.1% | … | … |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aug 26 @ $41.60 | Alexandra Renner (Chief Product Officer), $22,152 | +2.2% | -5.0% | -8.6% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 6 @ $51.84 | Jacob DeWitte (Co-Founder, CEO, Director, 10% owner), $10,585,600 | -7.6% | -11.6% | -16.4% | -30.8% |
| May 20, 2026 | May 22 @ $65.88 | William Carroll Murphy Goodwin (Chief Legal & Strategy Officer), $612,206 | +4.3% | +1.5% | -17.9% | -39.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | May 6 @ $79.62 | Richard Craig Bealmear (Chief Financial Officer), $1,133,823 | -9.8% | -12.5% | -27.0% | -47.0% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mar 27 @ $50.23 | Patrick Joseph Schweiger (Chief Technology Officer), $314,085 | -9.3% | -2.9% | +37.5% | +5.0% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 17 @ $60.53 | Jacob DeWitte (Co-Founder, CEO, Director, 10% owner), $7,067,280 | -6.3% | -9.2% | +6.1% | -5.1% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $65.65 | Richard Craig Bealmear (Chief Financial Officer), $975,420 | -5.5% | -4.4% | -26.7% | -0.7% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Dec 22 @ $83.44 | Richard Craig Bealmear (Chief Financial Officer), $5,872,623 | -1.9% | -14.2% | +5.0% | -33.8% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Dec 3 @ $96.59 | William Carroll Murphy Goodwin (Chief Legal & Strategy Officer), $518,518 | +15.6% | +4.2% | -7.5% | -39.7% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Nov 21 @ $88.17 | William Carroll Murphy Goodwin (Chief Legal & Strategy Officer), $1,215,538 | +1.6% | -0.9% | -7.1% | -24.8% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Sep 22 @ $140.30 | Richard Craig Bealmear (Chief Financial Officer), $9,431,387 | +1.7% | -17.0% | -0.6% | -40.7% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Sep 10 @ $73.75 | William Carroll Murphy Goodwin (Chief Legal & Strategy Officer), $2,900,902 | +8.4% | +29.2% | +87.3% | +40.9% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.