OKLO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OKLO +1.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its ai power & nuclear peers +0.0% (-0.1 pts vs SPY).
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 9 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 4 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OKLO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
30.45 +4.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
32.29 +11.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 29.38 · prior close 29.04 | |
| Bargain buy side |
27.70 -4.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
26.12 -10.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 27.27 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 30.92 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 27.70 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 30.45 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 28.10 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 30.02 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 25.24 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 33.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 26.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 32.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 26.97 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 31.27 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OKLO's daily swings (about 4.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | -9.2% | +4.9% | -11.1% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -8.1% | -1.4% | -4.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.5% | -3.5% | -1.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.7% | +5.5% | +6.4% | -30.4% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.6% | -3.5% | -10.3% | -24.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -11.2% | -17.2% | -20.5% | -39.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | -9.8% | -6.4% | -17.9% | -32.6% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -8.1% | +10.3% | 0.0% | -28.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -1.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | -9.2% | +4.9% | -11.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.7% | +5.5% | +6.4% | -30.4% |
| Aug 12, 2024 | -5.9% | +3.1% | -13.5% | +247.1% |
| May 10, 2024 | -53.6% | +6.6% | +11.8% | -16.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among OKLO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
174.14 +492.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 130.00 +342.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 75.38 +156.5% |
| 200-day average | 57.38 +95.3% |
| 50-day average | 39.35 +33.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 32.29 +9.9% |
| Now | 29.38 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
29.04 -1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.04 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 26.12 -11.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 14.00 -52.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.