OKTA
Moving with its cybersecurity peers
- OKTA −1.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Cybersecurity basket -1.8% (-1.9 pts vs SPY; NET -4.0%, CRWD -2.3%, FTNT -1.9%, PANW -1.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OKTA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
220.51 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
231.62 +9.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 207.99 · prior close 211.91 | |
| Bargain buy side |
203.65 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
193.89 -8.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 201.04 | 2 in 10 days | 223.38 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 203.65 | 3 in 10 days | 220.51 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 206.12 | 4 in 10 days | 217.87 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 188.37 | 2 in 10 weeks | 238.41 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 193.89 | 3 in 10 weeks | 231.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 199.18 | 4 in 10 weeks | 225.47 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OKTA's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -4.0% | +7.0% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.8% | +3.8% | +27.8% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | -3.1% | +32.1% | +56.8% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -4.9% | -8.3% | +29.2% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -4.5% | -3.9% | -0.4% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -6.9% | +7.7% | +8.8% | +58.8% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.9% | -2.0% | +23.6% | +43.7% |
| May 27, 2026 | -4.6% | +39.3% | +38.9% | +50.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among OKTA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 12, 2021 |
291.78 +40.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
232.13 +11.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 231.62 +11.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
211.91 +1.9% |
| Now | 207.99 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 193.89 -6.8% |
| 50-day average | 179.01 -13.9% |
| 200-day average | 118.02 -43.3% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
62.93 -69.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.