OLLI
Moving with the market
- OLLI +0.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OLLI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
95.50 +2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
98.54 +5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 93.50 · prior close 93.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
90.79 -2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
88.00 -5.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 90.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 96.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 90.79 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 95.50 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 91.49 | 4 in 10 days | 94.78 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 86.40 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 100.36 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 88.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 98.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 89.52 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 96.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OLLI's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | +3.5% | +5.2% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +4.7% | +3.5% | +14.7% | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +4.1% | +1.9% | +13.6% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +4.2% | -6.4% | -4.5% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +4.7% | -6.3% | -5.8% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +3.3% | +11.8% | +7.7% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | +6.3% | -19.5% | -5.4% | +12.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +3.0% | +8.5% | -19.3% | -0.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among OLLI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 6, 2025 |
140.80 +50.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
129.00 +38.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 98.54 +5.4% |
| Now | 93.50 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
93.12 -0.4% |
| 200-day average | 88.42 -5.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 88.00 -5.9% |
| 50-day average | 79.69 -14.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 8, 2026 |
61.88 -33.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.