OLMA
Moving with the market
- OLMA −0.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OLMA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
7.02 +3.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
7.31 +7.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 6.77 · prior close 6.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
6.58 -3.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
6.32 -7.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 6.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 7.10 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 6.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 7.02 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 6.65 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 6.96 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 6.18 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 7.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 6.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 7.31 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 6.46 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 7.15 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OLMA's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -5.9% | — | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2025 | -7.0% | +1.2% | +2.9% | -3.1% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | -2.2% | +3.3% | -7.9% | -2.9% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | -1.0% | +6.2% | +1.0% | -27.6% |
| Nov 18, 2024 | -5.9% | +3.2% | -32.2% | -42.2% |
| Apr 14, 2022 | -5.5% | -7.5% | -28.6% | +54.2% |
| Mar 14, 2022 | -9.8% | +22.4% | -18.6% | -7.8% |
| Feb 7, 2022 | -2.9% | -16.1% | -14.2% | -63.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among OLMA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 1, 2020 |
54.50 +705.0% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 15, 2025 |
35.83 +429.2% |
| 200-day average | 15.10 +123.0% |
| 50-day average | 9.73 +43.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 7.31 +8.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
6.80 +0.4% |
| Now | 6.77 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
6.77 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 6.32 -6.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.