OMDA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OMDA +2.25% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OMDA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.16 +5.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
20.39 +11.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 18.63 · prior close 18.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.33 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
16.28 -10.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 17.05 | 2 in 10 days | 19.47 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 17.33 | 3 in 10 days | 19.16 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 17.59 | 4 in 10 days | 18.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 15.70 | 2 in 10 weeks | 21.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 16.28 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.39 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 16.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 19.71 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OMDA's daily swings (about 5.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among OMDA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
26.78 +43.7% |
| 50-day average | 21.78 +16.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.39 +9.4% |
| Now | 18.63 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
18.22 -2.2% |
| 200-day average | 17.51 -6.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.28 -12.6% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 11, 2026 |
10.94 -41.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.