ON
Moving with the market
- ON −0.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 8): After its 14 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, ON was higher a week later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Stifel maintained Hold, raised target $75.00 → $80.00.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ON only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
75.86 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
79.08 +7.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 73.24 · prior close 73.36 | |
| Bargain buy side |
70.94 -3.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
68.05 -7.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 70.17 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 76.70 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 70.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 75.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 71.66 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 75.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.42 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 81.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 68.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 79.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 69.62 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 77.30 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ON's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.4% | -11.1% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -9.0% | +11.3% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -4.4% | +3.0% | +16.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.7% | -8.7% | -14.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -4.8% | +8.3% | -4.2% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -5.2% | -4.3% | -13.2% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -5.8% | -4.1% | -10.2% | -14.2% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -23.7% | +4.5% | -6.9% | -14.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ON's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 150.00 +104.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 3, 2026 |
133.93 +82.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 104.46 +42.6% |
| 200-day average | 81.54 +11.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 79.08 +8.0% |
| 50-day average | 76.01 +3.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 75.00 +2.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.36 +0.2% |
| Now | 73.24 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 68.05 -7.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
44.90 -38.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.