ONC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ONC +5.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +5.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ONC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
356.93 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
363.78 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 370.87 · prior close 351.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
346.11 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
339.59 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 344.39 | 2 in 10 days | 358.72 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 346.11 | 3 in 10 days | 356.93 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 347.73 | 4 in 10 days | 355.27 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 335.82 | 2 in 10 weeks | 367.87 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 339.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 363.78 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 343.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 360.01 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ONC's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ONC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 17, 2021 |
403.14 +8.7% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 12, 2025 |
377.47 +1.8% |
| Now | 370.87 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 363.78 -1.9% |
| 50-day average | 359.37 -3.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
351.48 -5.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 339.59 -8.4% |
| 200-day average | 322.20 -13.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 11, 2026 |
260.27 -29.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.