ONDS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ONDS +1.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure, other event (item 7.01, 8.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 68 big drops in the past 5 years, ONDS was higher a week later 27 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -9.6% and +9.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 7 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 81% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citizens started coverage at Market Outperform, target $14.00.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ONDS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.37 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
6.67 +8.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 6.24 · prior close 6.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.92 -3.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
5.65 -7.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 6.45 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 6.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.98 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 6.30 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 6.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.65 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 6.67 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 5.80 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 6.50 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ONDS's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -9.7% | -3.5% | -5.3% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -8.8% | -5.9% | -18.9% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -13.5% | +30.4% | +28.7% | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -10.0% | +3.1% | +1.6% | -3.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -14.5% | -19.8% | -32.6% | -34.5% |
| May 18, 2026 | -8.7% | +0.7% | -6.0% | -6.6% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -9.4% | -1.6% | +39.3% | -20.1% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -8.4% | +1.7% | +16.0% | -17.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ONDS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 25.00 +300.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 18.88 +202.5% |
| All-time closing high Feb 16, 2021 |
15.40 +146.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 8, 2026 |
14.01 +124.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 13.00 +108.3% |
| 200-day average | 9.37 +50.1% |
| 50-day average | 7.79 +24.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.67 +6.9% |
| Now | 6.24 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
6.14 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.65 -9.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
5.25 -15.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.