ONTO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ONTO −6.88% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −7.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ONTO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
252.48 +4.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
266.86 +10.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 224.80 · prior close 241.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
230.83 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
218.39 -9.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 227.49 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 256.18 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 230.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 252.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 233.98 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 249.07 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 211.39 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 275.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 218.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 266.86 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 225.12 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 258.88 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ONTO's daily swings (about 4.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -7.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -11.1% | +10.3% | +5.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.5% | -1.0% | +12.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -10.2% | -7.5% | -20.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -5.5% | +20.5% | -4.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.4% | -5.2% | +3.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.6% | +3.4% | +17.8% | -14.3% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.9% | +14.1% | -1.4% | +16.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ONTO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
378.45 +68.3% |
| 50-day average | 286.61 +27.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 266.86 +18.7% |
| 200-day average | 259.22 +15.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
241.41 +7.4% |
| Now | 224.80 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 218.39 -2.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
124.09 -44.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.