ORCL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORCL +1.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its cloud peers -1.3% (-1.4 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 9): After its 32 mention spikes in the past 5 years, ORCL was higher a day later 13 times out of 32; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 30 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ORCL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
135.48 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
141.84 +8.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 132.91 · prior close 130.55 | |
| Bargain buy side |
125.80 -3.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
120.16 -8.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 124.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 137.13 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 125.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 135.48 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 127.22 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 133.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 116.96 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 145.71 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 120.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 141.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 123.21 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 138.32 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ORCL's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -5.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.4% | -1.5% | -7.2% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -5.2% | +14.4% | -2.3% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -4.6% | +6.3% | +22.0% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -6.5% | -7.7% | +10.6% | +7.9% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -5.0% | -15.6% | -27.9% | -14.8% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | -8.5% | +0.1% | -30.3% | -18.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.8% | -12.6% | -37.6% | -36.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ORCL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 400.00 +200.9% |
| All-time closing high Sep 10, 2025 |
323.43 +143.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 16, 2025 |
308.87 +132.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 237.97 +79.0% |
| 200-day average | 159.36 +19.9% |
| 50-day average | 144.91 +9.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 141.84 +6.7% |
| Now | 132.91 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
130.55 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 120.16 -9.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 24, 2026 |
114.57 -13.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 110.00 -17.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.