ORKA
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORKA −3.33% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ORKA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
78.95 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
81.84 +6.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 74.13 · prior close 76.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
74.48 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
71.85 -6.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 73.78 | 2 in 10 days | 79.70 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 74.48 | 3 in 10 days | 78.95 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 75.14 | 4 in 10 days | 78.25 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 70.34 | 2 in 10 weeks | 83.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 71.85 | 3 in 10 weeks | 81.84 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 73.28 | 4 in 10 weeks | 80.24 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ORKA's daily swings (about 3.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ORKA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 18, 2000 |
36,959,368.00 +49857406.2% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 18, 2026 |
113.08 +52.5% |
| 50-day average | 93.11 +25.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 81.84 +10.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
76.68 +3.4% |
| Now | 74.13 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.85 -3.1% |
| 200-day average | 66.11 -10.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
26.19 -64.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.