ORLY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORLY +2.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, ORLY was higher a day later 40 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ORLY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
87.72 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
89.00 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 89.20 · prior close 86.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
85.68 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
84.44 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 85.35 | 2 in 10 days | 88.05 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 85.68 | 3 in 10 days | 87.72 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 85.98 | 4 in 10 days | 87.40 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 83.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 89.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 84.44 | 3 in 10 weeks | 89.00 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 85.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 88.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ORLY's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ORLY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 120.00 +34.5% |
| All-time closing high Sep 11, 2025 |
107.82 +20.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 107.35 +20.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
103.05 +15.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 91.00 +2.0% |
| 200-day average | 90.68 +1.7% |
| Now | 89.20 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 89.00 -0.2% |
| 50-day average | 87.64 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
86.69 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 84.44 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 15, 2026 |
82.73 -7.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.