OSCR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OSCR −2.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OSCR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.21 +2.6% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
36.34 +5.9% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 33.56 · prior close 34.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.45 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
32.41 -5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.18 | 2 in 10 days | 35.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 33.45 | 3 in 10 days | 35.21 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 33.71 | 4 in 10 days | 34.94 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.82 | 2 in 10 weeks | 37.02 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 32.41 | 3 in 10 weeks | 36.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 32.98 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.72 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OSCR's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +1.9% | — | — | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | +6.4% | -2.2% | -1.0% | — |
| Jun 15, 2026 | +3.1% | +2.7% | -1.0% | +11.3% |
| May 12, 2026 | +7.9% | +3.3% | +21.8% | +24.8% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | +12.3% | -13.3% | -18.5% | -23.5% |
| May 6, 2024 | +5.3% | +15.7% | +3.8% | -9.2% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | +24.4% | +9.4% | -12.4% | +33.0% |
| Jan 8, 2024 | +9.9% | +13.0% | +38.4% | +44.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among OSCR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 10, 2021 |
36.77 +9.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.34 +8.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
34.32 +2.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.32 +2.2% |
| Now | 33.56 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.41 -3.4% |
| 50-day average | 31.32 -6.7% |
| 200-day average | 22.75 -32.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
10.85 -67.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.