OTIS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- OTIS +1.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, OTIS was higher a day later 34 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OTIS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
70.08 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
71.30 +3.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 70.06 · prior close 69.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
68.15 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
66.99 -3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 67.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 70.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 68.15 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 70.08 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 68.44 | 4 in 10 days | 69.79 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 72.02 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 66.99 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 71.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 67.62 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 70.63 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OTIS's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +2.9% | +1.3% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +2.2% | -3.6% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +1.8% | -0.8% | -3.4% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +2.3% | +0.6% | -4.8% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +2.0% | -0.8% | -3.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.9% | -5.6% | -2.6% | -7.3% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.5% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -11.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among OTIS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 105.00 +49.9% |
| All-time closing high Oct 18, 2024 |
102.02 +45.6% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
92.50 +32.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 86.54 +23.5% |
| 200-day average | 76.47 +9.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 73.00 +4.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 71.30 +1.8% |
| Now | 70.06 |
| 50-day average | 69.34 -1.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.11 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 66.99 -4.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
64.05 -8.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.