OWL
Moving with the market
- OWL −0.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices OWL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.00 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
9.26 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 8.74 · prior close 8.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.59 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
8.34 -5.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 8.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 9.07 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.59 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 9.00 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.65 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 8.93 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.20 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 9.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 9.26 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.48 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 9.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From OWL's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -3.6% | -3.2% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.0% | -4.5% | -9.0% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.6% | -7.0% | -23.4% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -3.5% | -4.5% | -16.2% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.6% | -10.6% | -1.5% | +7.0% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -3.8% | -4.8% | -10.2% | +18.2% |
| May 11, 2026 | -4.5% | -3.6% | -3.8% | +25.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.0% | +3.5% | +9.3% | +2.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among OWL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 24, 2025 |
23.98 +174.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 22, 2025 |
15.90 +82.1% |
| 50-day average | 10.58 +21.2% |
| 200-day average | 10.33 +18.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.26 +6.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.79 +0.6% |
| Now | 8.74 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.34 -4.5% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
7.89 -9.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.